Good Evening (or morning) Gators!
As you know I’ve been studying the weekly chart for MVIS quite a bit lately. For those of you who subscribe to the premium side of the Gator Traders Discord, you also know that I study econophysics when it comes to technical analysis and rarely rely on lagging indicators. I have my Gator Traders YouTube A-Good-Basic-Chart setup on YouTube that is nothing but lagging indicators however that is what I use to validate theory, not form it. (You can click on it right there and it will take you to the YouTube channel if you want to learn more about it.)
Econophysics is the study and a system of theories that attempt to explain price action within the physical world’s laws of physics. An outstanding tool for this is the Andrew’s pitchfork and it’s modified cousins. You see this quite frequently in my charts. Other outstanding tools are Gann’s fans and various boxes and angle tool uses. The pitchfork covers most of what I do with price analysis.
The foundation of any GOOD technical analysis starts with candles. Nothing more. Using and understand raw price action prior to trying to place areas of support, resistance, and ultimately coming to a conclusion on direction is folly if you do not understand the very basics of what those lines and indicators are trying to measure in the first place.
When studying econophysics and applying some of these principals to a chart, you come to some interesting discoveries and actual theories on what is happening in a stock. These theories, if properly formed without too much bias, can help a trader trade near the edges of a market. Trading near the edges is what gets one in with minimal risk and out with maximum gain. Had I followed my own set of buy and sell signals with MVIS, I would have exited many weeks ago at a much higher price point than we currently are. Of course, there is the human element of greed which sometimes prevents one from trading within the confines of their own set boundaries. The potential for a massive share increase due to a strategic partnership or merger will do that.
Anyways … the beginning of the theory
Every trader in MVIS with access to a charting program likely has this support line drawn. Of course I’m referring to the diagonal white line. Whether it is on the weekly, daily, or some other lower time frame, that line is important to everyone watching price action with baited breath at the moment. The first step to recognizing where manipulation may occur is knowing that there is a high potential for a lot of people to be manipulated.
When I say manipulation, I don’t mean some big scary investment firm walking price down to accumulate shares over the course of weeks or months. That isn’t really how it works. They might use such tactics to get retail on a euphoric high about surging price action before making a massive, sudden short attack while dumping their own position or they might allow prices to slowly bleed over the course of time to chip away at shareholder confidence and free up some shares and increase volatility. Sound familiar? How many of us wish they had sold at $24 right now?
Emotionally, retail shareholders are primed for a kneejerk panic sell reaction at this very moment. The chart is set up for it as well. With thousands of retail traders all fixated on one simple line and an untold number of moving averages and other lagging indicators, manipulation at this point is simple. All it takes is for someone with a lot of shares to suddenly dump them on the market and snap that line. How many of you will think it is the apocalypse and will sell with them? Share prices may fall with sudden violence that will rattle even the most diamond handed investors. Congratulations to the big money man. Now he has everyone selling shares to him at a cheap price and he has a massive scalped position that he can jump back in with increased leverage. Manipulation attempts don’t work unless people are successfully manipulated. Manipulation doesn’t occur unless someone has an agenda. The agenda is simple…money. The tools are simple to figure out…emotional responses and basic technical analysis techniques. We know that nothing has fundamentally changed at MVIS, right?
What comes next is the whipsaw. It may be a day or two. It may be a week. But it’ll come. We’ll see it on the daily and perhaps the weekly chart. If this scenario plays out, there will be a long-tailed green hammer with a lower low than the previous red candles on whichever time frame chart the manipulation targets. Perhaps it will be an inside bar. Maybe the manipulator starts a stampede and it ends up as a green outside bar. Whatever it is, the chart is primed at that point to advance the agenda of the manipulator. We’ll all do his dirty work for him. Calls will start gaining in value. Demand will overrun supply and volume will go through the roof with share prices. Suddenly, hundreds of MVIS investors that sold for a loss or sold for minimal profits are left behind, waiting for the dip that never comes. No one feels sorry for them. The euphoria and jubilee of surging, bullish price action makes those individuals quickly forgotten. They then get assimilated into #CrossThreaded Gato wannabes and they change their real-life name to Angus. This happens more frequently than one realizes. It’s tragic.
So what should we look for? What would be the target price of this shadowy villain toying with our emotions and money?
Let’s go back to February…
Y’all gave me some love over this back in February on YouTube. 50+ thumbs down on a video when I mentioned that a bearish divergence between price and RSI could cause prices to come back down to the 9.74 range. I appreciate that slaughter on the YouTube analytics and algos, by the way. Thanks. Truly. I even lost a few subscribers over it. I was “spreading FUD.” No…I was being honest. I don’t want prices to go down. I’ve been holding long since last April. I want moons and rockets every day but I will let you know if I see something that bothers me.
Fact is, these things take time to play out. What looked like a FUD spreading idiot analysis then suddenly looks like a reality now. These are the details that Wall Street pros EXPECT us to miss. They know that a bearish divergence usually indicates that price will at least retest the place where the divergence began. In this case, $9.74. If you look at the horizontal line on the daily chart you’ll see how close we’ve come.
Now, I thought that first red candle was close enough and stated as much in another video. Stone me for that if you must. I thought we cleared the danger zone then. It would currently appear as though we did not. Whether you want to mark the 08 February price as the point of divergence or the 16 February price is entirely up to you. It’s a back study at this point. That, however, does not change the fact that the possible $9.74 target is very real.
I’m here thinking, “I’m just a dumb redneck with high school education. Surely these villains with agendas who spent all of their daddy’s money on frat parties to study economics while letting other grown men paddle them are aware of this divergence and the potential for price to return to this based on technicals.” It would appear that they helped fulfill the RSI prophecy by dumping large positions over time and stagnating prices along with short attacks. Remember, a successful manipulation can only occur if people are manipulated. Here’s the catch though. They are greedy too. They likely have a target in mind. If I were a betting man, I’d bet $9.74 (or really really close to it) is the target they have in mind to close their short positions and buying calls and shares while selling puts to panicking retail bulls and two brain-celled retail bears that can’t tell the difference between a Peanuts comic and a technical chart.
If this makes sense to you, that’s because this is how it is done. This is how manipulation occurs and this is how it is successful. It cannot be successful without getting people #CrossThreaded. Why not pay some loud-mouth criminal to spew garbage on all forms of social media 23 hours a day on a probable cocaine binge while on likely house arrest for harassment and/or stalking? I mean, it couldn’t hurt, right? Agendas folks. Agendas. Big money will not act in YOUR best interest. They act in THEIR best interest and this sounds like a possible play they have in mind to advance their agenda for their interest at YOUR expense.
What do I expect…
Scenario A – Weekly Candles
See that little green candle with no tail on the end? I added that one as best as I could. Someone please tell trading view to add candles as a picture that I can insert onto a chart. Anyway, imagine that candle having a tail piercing that 9.74 line next week, forming a nice pretty green hammer. That would be a HUGE reversal signal on the weekly chart. Of course, it would be a painful week. That means we’d see prices below 9.74 for part of the week in order to form that hammer. A GREEN hammer would be massive though and would be very encouraging for me to add to my position. I’m holding no matter what, but I’m looking to increase my hold just like our villains are. I haven’t sold yet, ain’t gonna sell now. Buyout or bust. MVIS MAFIA! #FreeBuggy This scenario goes on to pop the flag / pennant / wedge and leads us back to $20 plus.
Scenario B – Daily Candles
In the daily candle scenario, the line that everyone is watching has been broken. Mission complete. Notice today’s candle. There is buying pressure and it almost forms a red hammer. Red hammers aren’t as cool as green hammers, but they are potential reversal signals. Now this one isn’t quite a hammer by definition, but it does have some buying pressure qualities and, if you’ve watched my videos, you know that area is a zone where I expected buying pressure. Perhaps our villain has some calls now that he would like to have printed. Maybe Friday is the day of the bullish stampede? Maybe it plays out sometime early next week? There isn’t much of a way to know right now and if there is, I don’t know how to figure it out. I wish I did.
This is a thought experiment of some potential scenarios IF there is some villainous scum out there attempting a major manipulation event. The intent of this entire post is to arm you with a few ideas of what could potentially happen. I’m not not confident enough in either scenario or the theory as a whole to stand out it and shout it from the rooftops as a price prophesy. Unfortunately, there is no way to know until it happens, if it happens at all. The chart does seem to hint at the possibility though since there is no fundamental reason whatsoever for the blood red price action spanning weeks now. Sure the bollinger bands on the monthly chart were in a bad place and yes the weekly chart has been over extended for a long time…but who really thinks that an RSI or a Bollinger Band moves price? It doesn’t. They are called lagging indicators for a reason. They cannot exist without input from price action and therefore do not have genuine predictive qualities. It is up to the trader to interpret their meaning correctly and draw the proper context from them which can be difficult at times. This is especially true when dealing with higher time frame charts that take forever to form a single candle.
I believe that the above content has a decent likelihood of being proven true by coming price action. Now it may take days or even weeks to see it play out to its fullest extent, but that also falls in line with what I’ve been saying for awhile now. I firmly believe our best price action to date may come in May, not April. Hopefully, I’m right.
Recognizing these possible setups and signs of potential manipulation in a chart is a trader’s best tool to trade near the edges. Everyone always says “Buy low and sell high.” What better way to do that than to make your move when big money makes their moves? Just a thought.
Oh, and one more thing. If tomorrow simply barcodes, at least we’ll have a potential hidden bullish divergence on the weekly chart ; )
As always, thank you for spending some of your time here on https://www.gator-traders.com
There is also https://www.youtube.com/c/gatortraders if you haven’t subscribed there yet. I haven’t been in town for the last week so the videos are a little outdated but more will be released very soon.
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Thank you for reading. Take care and GOD bless!
Please remember that Gator Traders LLC does not provide investment advice and anything coming from Brian (aka Gator Traders LLC) is purely an expression of the opinion of the author. I hold a long position in MVIS. Please do your own research and diligence and manage your risk according to your ability and tolerance. Gator Traders LLC is not liable for any investment or trade that you make. You alone assume responsibility. Trading involves risk and no analysis or end result can be guaranteed. Please invest wisely.